Suddenly there's another horse in the race.

The Convention on the Future of Europe is now in the home stretch in its attempt to settle the power struggle over who will control the new, super European Union. Most observers see what's going on as a power struggle between the EU's smaller member states and the EU's larger member states.

Since the smaller member states feel their interests are better represented in the Commission, they naturally are in favor of a new political structure for the EU that would increase the powers of the Commission. And, since the larger member states feel better represented by the Council, they want to strengthen the Council.

But, unfortunately, the politics in the EU aren't quite that simple. For example, Germany -- the largest EU member states -- isn't for increasing the power of the Council like the other larger states. Germany has instead always wanted a stronger Commission. The only reason Germany recently supported the French and British idea of a stronger president in the Council was if Germany could also have a stronger president in the Commission also. 

While this battle over the new EU presidency is raging, another issue is being debated -- who, or what, will run the new EU's foreign and security policy? And, if you have been following my commentaries, you know my money is on the EU's current High Representative getting this job, Javier Solana.

Here's why: As far as the bigger states who want to strengthen the Council are concerned, since taking office in 1999, Solana has been their man. And, I've always believed the real power in the EU remains with the heads of state who meet in the Council. But, Solana's term will end in 2004 -- about the same time the new, super EU is to be up and running.

As far as most of the smaller states who want to strengthen the Commission are concerned, their man has always been the Commission's External Affairs Commissioner, Chris Patten. Patten's term also expires in 2004.

Now, here's where the EU politics gets even more complicated: Both sides -- the smaller member states and the larger member states -- want to merge the two offices held by Solana in the Council, and Patten in the Commission, into one new office. The problem is, how can this be done without one side losing power to the other?

This is where that other horse I mentioned earlier suddenly appeared -- Germany's foreign minister, Joschka Fischer. Fischer entered the race by presenting his own proposal to the Convention for how the two opposing sides could come together on the issue of a single foreign minister. In part, his idea is the new super EU foreign minister should be independent of both the Commission and the Council (Read about it here).

And, it's becoming evident Fischer has much support for his plan. Recently, Germany, France and several other states have come out in favor of giving Fischer the job after the office is created (Read about it here).

However, it's my opinion some states will have problems with Fischer's plan. You see, Fischer's plan also calls for the new foreign minister to be the vice-president of the Commission. And, this could shift the EU foreign policy away from the larger member states in the Council -- which I suspect is what Germany would like.

So, am I about to loose my money by betting on Solana getting the job? Perhaps. But, even as I write some important voices in the EU are beginning to speak out against Fischer and in support of Solana (Read about it here).

So, although there's another horse in the home stretch, the race isn't over.

And, I wouldn't count Solana out yet.