Experience should have warned me. I should have expected it. Just when I thought I had things in the EU all figured out, something unexpected happened.

According to this report, British PM Tony Blair is meeting with other EU leaders about the possibility of giving Javier Solana Romano Prodi's post as president of the EU Commission Read about it here.

My first reaction was no way. Compared to the powerful new Foreign Minister post being proposed for Solana, to just become the next Commission president would be a step backwards. So, what's going on here?

Perhaps this next report sheds light on this startling news. The EUobserver is reporting the incoming Dutch EU presidency is concerned things are moving too fast in the EU and wants to put the brakes on the integration process Read about it here. In other words, the Dutch are getting cold feet.

It appears that old conflict between those who want the EU to remain a club of independent nation states and those who wish to turn the EU into a single federally controlled superstate hasn't gone away. Now, with the new EU presidency, it's flaring up again.

You see, France and Germany are in the EU superstate camp. That's why they've been pushing for Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt to become the next Commission president. Verhofstadt is also a federalist and wants to create a single European superstate.

On July 1 the Dutch EU presidency begins. This means the anti-federalists factions will have their time at the helm. It stands to reason these factions would attempt to steer the EU beast in their direction. And since Solana himself once said the EU would never become a superstate, it would become a super power -- they see Solana as on their side of this issue. So if Solana becomes their next Commission president, they may feel still in control of things.

But like I said before, for Solana this could be a step down. You see, the new Foreign Minister post would give Solana almost dictatorial control of the EU's foreign and security policy. And in light of all Solana's amazing diplomatic skills and achievements in this field, I can't imagine that role taken away and given to another.

So, this is what I think: If Solana gets the job of Commission president, the office will be modified to give Solana equal powers over the EU's foreign and security policy he would have enjoyed as the new Foreign Minister.

In other words, he could become stronger yet. 

Stay tuned!